Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.7 | 3.9% | 52 | 0.45% | 67 | 0.58% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 20.9 | 13.9% | 185 | 1.36% | 245 | 1.8% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 31.0 | 21.5% | 286 | 1.37% | 380 | 1.82% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 23.9 | 17.8% | 237 | 1.74% | 305 | 2.24% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 18.7 | 13.4% | 178 | 1.7% | 222 | 2.12% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 17.9 | 12.7% | 169 | 1.35% | 228 | 1.82% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 11.3 | 7.4% | 99 | 0.86% | 145 | 1.26% |
| 70+ | 3 | 11.1 | 9.5% | 126 | 1.2% | 169 | 1.61% |
| All ages | 69 | 139.4 | 100% | 1332 | 1.27% | 1761 | 1.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.7 | 2.8% | 32 | 0.41% | 43 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 8.3 | 6.7% | 76 | 0.9% | 110 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 18.4 | 15.1% | 170 | 2.39% | 203 | 2.85% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 23.3 | 20.6% | 232 | 2.76% | 269 | 3.2% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 21.9 | 18.8% | 212 | 2.73% | 258 | 3.33% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 20.6 | 16.6% | 187 | 1.93% | 233 | 2.4% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 15.9 | 12.9% | 146 | 1.74% | 180 | 2.14% |
| 70+ | 9 | 7.0 | 6.5% | 73 | 1.03% | 105 | 1.48% |
| All ages | 102 | 118.0 | 100% | 1128 | 1.74% | 1401 | 2.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.7 | 4.2% | 31 | 0.57% | 38 | 0.7% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 9.4 | 11.3% | 83 | 1.53% | 100 | 1.84% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 12.9 | 15.4% | 113 | 2.5% | 136 | 3.01% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 11.1 | 13.5% | 99 | 1.82% | 133 | 2.45% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 11.6 | 15% | 110 | 2.21% | 140 | 2.81% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 11.4 | 15.1% | 111 | 1.64% | 139 | 2.05% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 10.1 | 12.7% | 93 | 1.47% | 117 | 1.85% |
| 70+ | 10 | 9.6 | 12.7% | 93 | 1.47% | 118 | 1.86% |
| All ages | 62 | 79.9 | 100% | 733 | 1.62% | 921 | 2.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.6 | 2.7% | 33 | 0.28% | 38 | 0.32% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 15.1 | 11% | 135 | 0.82% | 177 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 27.4 | 20.5% | 251 | 1.18% | 328 | 1.54% |
| 30-39 | 37 | 18.6 | 14.4% | 176 | 1.29% | 226 | 1.66% |
| 40-49 | 33 | 17.3 | 14% | 171 | 1.26% | 228 | 1.68% |
| 50-59 | 33 | 21.0 | 16.5% | 202 | 1.42% | 257 | 1.81% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 17.3 | 12.7% | 155 | 1.09% | 191 | 1.35% |
| 70+ | 15 | 11.6 | 8.3% | 102 | 0.78% | 132 | 1.01% |
| All ages | 207 | 131.9 | 100% | 1225 | 1.04% | 1577 | 1.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 20 | 23.7 | 5.8% | 229 | 0.38% | 289 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 78 | 68.6 | 15.2% | 601 | 0.85% | 755 | 1.06% |
| 20-29 | 115 | 105.1 | 24.2% | 955 | 0.92% | 1233 | 1.19% |
| 30-39 | 59 | 68.6 | 15.9% | 628 | 0.82% | 788 | 1.03% |
| 40-49 | 74 | 60.0 | 13.8% | 546 | 0.83% | 692 | 1.05% |
| 50-59 | 60 | 46.3 | 11% | 432 | 0.66% | 571 | 0.87% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 24.7 | 6.5% | 256 | 0.47% | 336 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 40 | 30.6 | 7.6% | 298 | 0.61% | 363 | 0.74% |
| All ages | 462 | 427.6 | 100% | 3945 | 0.72% | 5027 | 0.92% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 291 | 238.0 | 3.9% | 2236 | 0.35% | 2922 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 810 | 687.7 | 11.1% | 6346 | 0.84% | 8357 | 1.1% |
| 20-29 | 1215 | 1083.6 | 18% | 10289 | 1.36% | 13436 | 1.78% |
| 30-39 | 1011 | 923.9 | 15.7% | 8944 | 1.18% | 11886 | 1.57% |
| 40-49 | 1046 | 869.9 | 14.7% | 8380 | 1.2% | 11100 | 1.59% |
| 50-59 | 1109 | 925.0 | 15.5% | 8839 | 1.08% | 11924 | 1.46% |
| 60-69 | 805 | 670.1 | 11.1% | 6304 | 0.83% | 8546 | 1.13% |
| 70+ | 761 | 586.0 | 10% | 5690 | 0.89% | 7595 | 1.19% |
| All ages | 7048 | 5984.1 | 100% | 57028 | 0.98% | 75765 | 1.3% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168.3 | 180.1 | 181.6 | 139.4 | 112.6 | 37.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216.7 | 118 | 77.4 | 46.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203.6 | 79.9 | 44.4 | 48.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133.4 | 106.9 | 154.1 | 131.9 | 75 | 33.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 106.2 | 118.7 | 427.6 | 286.9 | 27.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130.1 | 110.4 | 177.5 | 5984.1 | 4404.3 | 35.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 9.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2404"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges